A Labour government in London is not simply the last hope of
everyone in Britain that has had enough of the corruption and incompetence of
the Major government. It is what every single European Union government wants
too. When Tony Blair wins office on 1 May the sense of relief in the
chancelleries of western Europe will be palpable.
If they knew the
Labour leader better, they might be less enthusiastic. His view of the world,
like that of his closest advisers – and of every other Labour leader since the
war apart from Michael Foot and Neil Kinnock – is disappointingly Atlanticist. New Labour has
looked primarily to America, not Europe, for its thinking about policy and
electoral strategy, and the would-be prime minister is ill at ease about the
EU. He knows what the polls and focus groups say about the unpopularity of
“Europe”; he doesn’t know European politics too well; and he doesn’t like the
idea of winning what he thought was the key position just to find – like Aneurin Bevan as a councillor in south
Wales in the 1920s – that the important decisions are being made one rung
further up the ladder.
Nevertheless, the
optimism of the west European political elite is justified. Blair might not be
an out-and- out Euro-enthusiast or even particularly au fait with European
politics. He is, however, not a pig-headed Europhobe – and his party’s
pig-headed Europhobes have been in no position to cause him trouble. Indeed, he
wants constructive engagement with Europe, and the mood in the Labour Party
remains cautiously Euro-integrationist. A Blair government will not engage in
the obstructive histrionics that the Tories
made their trademark under Margaret Thatcher and John Major.
So Blair is guaranteed an initial warm embrace from the rest
of the EU. What then? Of course, nobody knows. But European monetary union will
suddenly become crucial. If it goes ahead on time – which still looks likely,
despite the difficulties of the German economy – Britain will probably qualify
for first-wave membership. If it does and a Blair government joins, or says it
will, Britain will be the toast of the continental European political class.
But if, as seems more likely, Britain stays out, Blair will have his work cut
out if he is to retain any credibility with other European governments, however
good his reasons.
The problem, put simply, is that EMU has become the
touchstone of commitment to the cause of a united Europe. The decision on
joining a single currency has become more than a matter of hard-headed economics.
It is also a political decision. To opt out is to damage the prospects of
further European integration.
Which would be no problem if going it alone were an option
for a Labour Britain. But it is not. Further European integration is essential
if the EU is to acquire the powers Labour needs it to have in the spheres of
economic, environmental and security policy.
So what can Labour do? Its best bet is to come up with a
far-reaching programme for European integration that can be implemented
whatever happens to EMU – whether or not it goes ahead as planned, and whether
or not Britain is part of it. In particular, a Blair government should table
proposals for a radical democratisation of the EU, based on a massive increase
in the powers of the European Parliament, and should make clear its enthusiasm
for reviving Jacques Delors’ “Eurokeynesian” plans for employment generation.
This would not go down as well with other EU governments as an unambiguous
commitment to EMU – but it would be a lot better than nothing.
