Tribune leader, 20 March 1992
Labour has got off to a tremendous start in this election
campaign. Neil Kinnock's first major speech of the campaign at the party's
Scottish conference in Edinburgh last Friday made John Major's effort at the
Tory local government conference the next day look wooden and unconvincing.
On Monday, John Smith's shadow budget trumped Norman
Lament's "real" budget and the Tories* persistent jibes that Labour
would increase taxes for all: only the most easily led will now believe the
Tory claims. It also knocked the Liberal Democrats’ manifesto launch from the
top slot in the television news. Mr Smith's efficient demolition of Mr Lamont
on Monday night's Panorama was a joy for Labour supporters to behold.
On Wednesday, when both Labour and the Tories launched their
manifestos, the Labour politicians looked buoyant while their Conservative
counterparts appeared lacklustre. More important, Labour's programme appeared
sensible and attractive, the Tories' absolutely threadbare. At the national
level, Labour has seized the initiative, making the Tories look like uninspired
and uninspiring losers. Even such hardy professional politicians as Douglas Hurd,
Christopher Patten and Michael Heseltine seem to have lost their touch, while
Mr Major himself, supposedly the Tories' greatest electoral asset, is clearly
out of his depth. This week's Tory party political broadcast was utterly unconvincing.
But it is not just a matter of Labour doing well in what
Tony Bonn once described as the constituency of Television Central. By all
accounts, the party's 'headquarters in Walworth Road is operating with an unheard-of
breezy enthusiasm. More important, Labour is also doing extraordinarily well on
the ground. In seat after seat, local Labour Parties are reporting that they
have taken the campaigning initiative: first on to the streets with leaflets,
first to get the posters out, first to canvass.
In many places, including many of its target marginals and,
remarkably, several inner-city areas where pessimists believed Labour's
organisation to be moribund, Labour has been the only party with any visible
presence in week one. The Tories seem incapable of anything so far, apart from
computerised direct-mail shots and expensive (and easily amended) advertisements
on hoardings. Labour is more optimistic than at any time since 1974. We all
think we're going to win.
But it would be wrong to take anything for granted. High
morale can be useful for winning general elections, but only if it inspires
party members and supporters to go out and do the hard graft. And there is
still a lot of hard graft to be done. A good start is better than a bad one -
and so fear Labour is doing much better than in 1987, when its campaign was
widely admired - but a couple of polls showing a five-point Labour lead do not
guarantee the election result.
In the wake of the shadow budget, the Tory tabloids have
shaken off the uncertainty of last week, which saw even the Sun pronouncing Mr
Lamont’s £2-a-week giveaway a flop, and have unleashed a ferocious assault on
Labour. By the weekend, Labour's mood could all too easily be punctured if it
turns out that Tuesday's Harris poll in the Daily Express, giving the Tories a
three-point lead, was not a freak.
Even if the polls have swung in Labour's favour, there are
plenty of obstacles to be overcome before we can be sure of Labour victory. It
is probably best to keep the champagne on ice.
