Will John Major go for a November election? It is
unlikely that he has finally made up his mind, but it is quite likely that he will opt for the autumn
rather than hanging on until spring. The Tories are ahead in most opinion
polls, and they believe that the economic tide has turned in their favour. With
the strong possibility that any upturn will be temporary and with the danger
that the Tories will be badly split over Europe by the end of the year, Mr
Major will almost certainly go for November if his party is leading clearly in
the polls after the Tory conference.
With this in mind, the Tories are mounting a
political offensive. Perhaps it will work – but it is difficult to see how. The
Conservative strategy seems to consist of little more than accusing Labour of
incompetence, claiming one day that Labour has a hidden radical agenda and the
next that it has given up its principles. The Tories have little in the way of
a positive programme to offer the voters. Their Citizens' Charter is a damp
squib; their remaining major privatisation plans are unpopular; and their
"council tax" replacement for the poll tax is at best uninspiring.
They are incoherent on Europe and outdated on defence. Add their appalling
record on economic policy, the health service, education, training, transport
and the environment, and it is clear that they are going to have serious
problems winning support.
But Labour cannot afford to rest on its laurels and
hope that a well-behaved conference and slick party political broadcasts will
make up the gap in the opinion polls, so that Labour wins a November election
or, if the surge comes sooner, forces Mr Major to put off the election. Labour
is better prepared for an election than ever before, and the confidence exuded
by the party leadership is not just for the television cameras. But the whole
party will have to work hard to win. The task is not merely to persuade the
voters that Neil Kinnock is a fine fellow with a competent team behind him but
to convince them that Labour has a cogent and attractive vision of a future
Britain. If Labour comes across as being the same as the Tories, with a few
slight differences on education and the health service, the party will not win,
nor will it deserve to.